Tag: research

Why are some Media Houses dismissing Steaming as a remedy for Coronavirus without showing scientific evidence of it’s lack of efficacy?

by Sang N., posted in Covid19, media, News

So some Media houses are this morning trying to denigrate and dismiss Steaming (which some ethnic minorities have been doing to try and protect themselves from coronavirus). They say it is a fake remedy, but critically do not provide any evidence as to its lack of efficacy…?

And yet there’s been at least one small study which shows steaming as a “promising” remedy?

So here’s my question, shouldn’t Scientists first undertake controlled studies and clinical trials regarding whether Steaming has an effect on the virus or not, and if it has to what extent, before the media rushes off to bully, denigrate and dismiss anybody who recommends steaming as a remedy? Just asking…🧐

Listening to all the attacks, it seems to me that anything that’s not a Vaccine is being quickly dismissed and attacked without even first checking carefully, in a scientific study, whether it could have some efficacy or not. Which is concerning, to say the least.

Isn’t it the case that if you don’t try and check alternatives to the Vaccine, then you can’t possibly conclude whether something else works or not?!

Surely, if Pharmaceuticals go through the trouble of checking Vaccines (which are important and have a good history of effectiveness), then surely it shouldn’t be such a big deal to trial out simpler and cheaper home remedies? Especially when Vaccine supplies are in high demand, and some people unfortunately won’t be able to get them in time.

And steaming is by no means the only home remedy. There are claims that Blue gum leaves, ginger, garlic and other foods with anti-inflammatory properties are also effective, at least in preventing the build-up of mucus in the lungs.

I think at such a difficult time we should all be open-minded as to what other remedies could be effective against COVID-19. Which means it should be procedural for certain herbal or home remedies to be trialed for conclusive evidence as to their efficacy, before dismissing them.

This is important for poor countries which need alternatives until a time that they have procured enough Vaccine supplies, since they may not get all the Vaccine supplies they need in time, especially in light of the Vaccine shortages.

Finally, let me be clear that I’m not referring to absurd and ridiculous or otherwise scientifically illiterate herbal or home remedies which have been suggested in the past, like chlorine or disinfectant, which are dangerous to human health and could put people’s lives in danger.

14 African Countries Forced by France to Pay Colonial Tax

by Sang N., posted in Opinion, Thoughts

Its anybody’s guess how true some of the allegations in the link below are, but probably not something to read on a Saturday morning 😐 .

What is clear is that Western Countries like France have had a huge and unfair economic advantage over non-western countries, and some of their policies (which are precisely the policies which gave them that unfair economic advantage) towards former colonies were clearly and undeniably oppressive.

The reason I don’t buy the BS which goes something like:”Stop moaning, others like South Korea have moved on from the colonial bashing….and are now prosperous” is that unlike any of the African countries, South Korea got a huge grant of at least $3 billion dollars (others researchers say it was tens of billions of dollars: http://citation.allacademic.com/meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/1/3/6/7/p113675_index.html ) between 1965 -73 to build up its economy.

So South Korea was given huge amounts of money to build its economy. It didn’t just happen accidentally. It is an ignorant fallacy to claim that with the problems facing African countries can just be transformed using aid, diplomacy or education.

I think, considering that western politicians have failed miserably to use aid to solve Africa’s major problems the last 60 years (not that it was their call to do so – but their predecessors were part of the problem that created unquantifiable damage to Africa), in so far as sustainability is concerned, so as to remedy Africa’s problems, it is most probably time for educated African entrepreneurs (not Politicians) to be given ‘reparatory grants’ to rebuild their countries’ economies. Anything short of massive and reparatory investment into Africa is unlikely to create sustainable economies where the Africans themselves are in charge, and in control of their countries economies. After years of study, observation and obsessive inquiry, I’m convinced this (or a derivative form thereof) has to be part of the equation to rectifying the troubles in Africa.

14 African Countries Forced by France to Pay Colonial Tax via Systemic Capital.com

Where is Africa’s manufacturing?

by Sang N., posted in Business Ideas, Inspiration, Opinion, Thoughts

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I prefer to ask (and answer) the above question, that references to the ‘stage’ or ‘point’ (not physical location) when asked ‘Why is Africa not manufacturing?’ . I’ve been asked this question so many times, by people beffudled as to how Africa pretty much fails where everybody else has succeeded. The reason I prefer to answer the above question is because unlike popular belief Africa is in fact manufacturing, just not as much as everyone else, and just not always visibly (you don’t hear these stories on Tv, and they are rarely in the mainstream media publications – unless you read FT – although that’s arguably not mainstream)

Similar to the questions of manufacturing is that of whether the skills for the establishment of a bigger manufacturing sector are readily available for investors to tap into?

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I’ll start with the bad news:- If the skills are available on the continent, then as things stand, they are in severe shortage and are not really of African origin. According to research from OECD [see BBC link here], by the end of this decade (emphasis required, that’s by 2020) 4 of every 10 young graduate is going to be either from India or China. Looking at the list of countries listed, not even a single one is an African country. What does that say? Well, a number of things; that we are not producing enough graduates, or that the number of African graduates with skill sets (and of a high calibre) who can compete with their contemporaries from Chinese and Indian universities is comparatively insignificant. Which is worrying, because it essentially means Africa’s manufacturing is nowhere, or only material if driven and held together by non-African effectors.

In the past the Education of Africans has received very little support from those who should know better. Most dictators who took over from the colonialists did too little to maintain the standard and level of Education (or Higher Education) across Africa, focussing instead of consolidating their rule. With a few exceptions, multiparty governments that came after dictatorships followed suit, by not investing anywhere near enough as was necessary. The donors that were bed-fellows with the dictators (and those that came after) arguably weren’t as sympathetic or visionary. According to an ESSA paper (quoted in this paper titled “THE ROLE OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN AFRICA” by Prof.Dr.Birgit Brock-Utne of the Institute for Educational Research at the University of Oslo) the World Bank once viewed Higher Education in Africa as a luxury:

“To meet minimally acceptable targets for coverage and quality of lower levels of education in most countries, as a general rule the tertiary sub sector’s share of stagnant real public education expenditures cannot expand further, and in some cases may have to contract. Some combination of efficiency improvements, increased private contribution to costs, and constrained growth of – in some countries and fields, outright cutback in – production of graduates must be sought.” (World Bank 1988: 95)

Expenditure on education was merely a self-serving budgetary exercise, and it didn’t matter what the result was, or whether indeed Africa would be ‘left-behind’ as a direct consequence of the under-investment, what mattered was only that money had been saved.

Without research into what their policy position currently is, I wouldn’t be able to tell you whether this view has changed or not.

Investors with the means have been to put it mildly, shy of investing on the continent let alone into skills development. A paper by a researcher named Paul Bennell which addresses the issue of whether structural adjustments programs ( these are those stringent rules imposed on African countries as part of loan agreements from the likes of IMF and World Bank) over a 15 year period have indeed achieved the desired response (i.e. increasing foreign investment in the hope of triggering technology transfer from the industrialized countries to Africa) paints a depressing picture. To quote Bennell (via this link):

Surprisingly, the share of net earnings from UK manufacturing investments in Africa remitted each year to the UK was higher than the global average between 1985 and 1990 . . . While UK companies have been keen to reinvest very sizable proportions of their profits in North America, Europe and Asia, investment opportunities in manufacturing have generally been very limited in Africa and thus, given the option, most parent companies would like to remit the bulk of subsidiary profits from the region

In other words, Africa was where you went to make your money, and not a place to reinvest your profits.

But it isn’t all bad news.

Recently, the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) approved a US$ 45 million grant for the creation of a Pan African University (PAU) that will consist of five Pan African Institutes focussing mainly on science, technology and innovation. The background to the story reads:

Africa has only 35 scientists and engineers per million inhabitants, compared with 168 for Brazil, 2,457 for Europe and 4,103 for the United States. Shortage of skills has been a major constraint to Africa’s progress in science, technology and innovation. Due to low investment in research and development, Africa ranks low in global competitiveness and productivity. African students tend to opt for economics, business, law and social sciences rather than science, engineering and technology, hampering the continent’s competitiveness and growth. The result is a mismatch between skills produced and private sector jobs.

While one would hope this initiative will be a success, and the Institutes will not falter under the common problems that beset universities and research institutions across much of Africa, it will be interesting to see how this develops.

As is well understood universally, innovation is the lifeblood of industry, and without the creation of ground-breaking and new products,  a country cannot advance or gain a competitive advantage. It was the case during the industrial revolution, during the rise of countries such as Germany, Russia, Japan and even Brazil. The exception (only to an extent) to this rule appears to be China, but that’s for a whole load of other reasons that distinguish it from the rest of mankind

But as the African Development Bank correctly observed above, in order to create ground-breaking innovations and products, and in order to influence global scientific research and technology, you need a skilled workforce. That’s why  the AfDB initiative represents a realignment of Africa’s potential in the right direction.

Across Africa, there are many success stories that are truly inspirational, although as i stated above, these are not shouted about in the mainstream media. One such inspirational story is that of Fabrinox, a south African company manufacturing sheet metal that was formed in 1993, and that has seen turnover in recent years hit US$5.8 million. Asked what had been the best decision he had made to grow his company, the company founder says:

To have followed the advice of my business mentor Johan Beyers to not restrict Fabrinox and its people to one geographical area, product or service, but to take a global view in running the business. For instance, it means that we think globally in terms of our supply chain, and are most willing to service clients beyond the boundaries of the Western Cape province in which we are located, and South Africa for that matter.

In addition to such success stories, there are also many partnerships between foreign manufacturers and agricultural producers across Africa, and some of those partnerships are genuinely beneficial to Africans. Who knows maybe some of these could one day pave way for an African manufacturing industry of its own, if some haven’t began to do so already? After all, manufacturing in industries such as motorcycle build and assembly in China began when after purchasing equipment from Japan, the Chinese assemblers began to modify the Japanese made components; fast forward a couple of decades, and China was making its own motorcycles which essentially were improvements (i.e. “innovations” more or less) of the original Japanese models.

The partnerships article above correctly points out that:

The level of mechanisation in African farming is still very low. Kenya had 25 tractors per 100 square kilometres of arable land in 2009 while Nigeria has almost seven, according to the most recent data from World Bank. That compares with an average of 271 machines in the US.

There are also some manufacturers who are looking towards Africa not because it’s ideal, but because they are getting sick and tired of the happenings in Asia (workplace safety that in recent years has become a major issue, levels of corruption, the increasing fees demanded by some factory owners, etc)

But before anybody gets too excited, look, the Chinese are planning on setting up shop in Africa! (see here and here). Although here one must wonder, does that mean Chinese labour (as they have been known to do in some African countries across the continent) or will these factories use African labour?

As for the power that will drive everything and get every bit of machinery working (in some countries – putting an end to years of intermittent blackouts), that’s about to get much more exciting. At least that’s what Obama seems to be saying.

Infrastructure

by Sang N., posted in Economy, Inspiration, Opinion, Public Policy, Research, Thoughts

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While you’ll find several references to Infrastructure on this site, I think this time around I’ll leave it to the experts to do the convincing. Paja akulu anati mutu umodzi siwusenza denga…

And if one takes time to browse through the cited references below (some of which are straight off page 1 + 2 of Google), it’s hard to argue against the fact that Infrastructure is one of the essential drivers of economic development. In this sense, and for the avoidance of doubt,  infrastructure is not limited to roads, railways, airports and buildings (for hotels, schools, Universities, hospitals, business centres, research facilities, etc), but also includes for example a good telecommunication network (internet, voice, data and the like) and power supply.

Infrastructure for sustainable development – European Commission

Intro reads: ” Good quality infrastructure is a key ingredient for sustainable development. All countries need efficient transport, sanitation, energy and communications systems if they are to prosper and provide a decent standard of living for their populations. Unfortunately, many developing countries possess poor infrastructure, which hampers their growth and ability to trade in the global economy. “

Infrastructure’s value to economic growth – Richard Lee, Partner, KPMG (via BBC)

which includes the statement : “…In fact, a recent KPMG International survey found that an overwhelming majority – 90% – of business executives said that the availability and quality of infrastructure affects where they locate their business operations…”

Needs For and Benefits of Infrastructure Connectivity – Asian Development Bank Institute
which includes the statement: “… The rapid economic and population growth of Asian economies in recent years has put huge pressure on its existing infrastructure, particularly in transport and energy, but also in communications. Asia’s infrastructure is world-class in parts, but is generally below the global average. This is a bottleneck to future growth, a threat to competitiveness, and an obstacle to poverty reduction.”
which includes the following statement: – “…An adequate infrastructure is a prerequisite to economic development. Transportation and communications are important in developing and strengthening social, political, and commercial ties. These ties must be developed before trade can be handled on a regular basis.”
Why Is Infrastructure Important – David Alan Aschauer, formerly Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and now (at the date of writing/publication) Elmer W.Campbell Professor of Economics, Bates College
Infrastructure and Poverty – The Global Poverty Project
the Intro reads: “Infrastructure – physical resources like roads, telecommunication networks, schools and drains – is necessary for a society to function: people can’t access healthcare if there are no hospitals; trade can’t take place if there are no roads on which to transport goods to markets. Infrastructure facilitates the basic functions of a society that are necessary to transport resources and people, produce and trade goods, provide essential services and ultimately reduce poverty.”
it follows with ” Lack of infrastructure also leads to lack of employment by acting as a disincentive to investment. Companies who struggle to produce and sell goods in an area with inadequate roads, electricity or water supply do not want to set up the factories or businesses that could potentially generate employment, improve living standards and reduce poverty. “
and “Lack of infrastructure can also lead to poor health and high mortality. Where there are no clinics or hospitals available, or where lack of roads or bridges makes them inaccessible, people cannot access the medical services that they require to be healthy and productive. A villager in Mozambique explains “The most dangerous thing is that [cholera] has always appeared during the rainy season, and it is then that the river is in spate and boats cannot cross.”
The Broader Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure – Ian Sue Wing, William P. Anderson and T.R. Lakshmanan, Center for Transportation Studies and Dept. of Geography & Environment, Boston University [similar article here]
uses the term Meso-scale to describe their approach. A slide from their presentation is quite appropriate in summarising some of the developmental + ‘equilibrium’ impacts, and worth replication:-
infra-messo
Finance and Infrastructure: The Economic Benefits of Infrastructure Projects Procured with Private Finance –  Andrew W Morley, International Congress Washington, D.C. USA, April 19-26 2002.
Infrastructure – Engineers Against Poverty
Intro reads as follows: “Without significant progress in the provision of infrastructure services it will be impossible for many countries to significantly achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Globally, more than 1 billion people have no access to roads, 900 million do not have safe drinking water, 2.3 billion lack reliable sources of energy, 2.5 billion have no sanitation  facilities and 4 billion are without modern communication services.”
which contains the paragraph “When it comes to infrastructure development, Thailand has done very well compared with some other Southeast Asian neighbors. In fact, appropriate infrastructure, including access to power and water, has helped Thailand fuel rapid economic growth during the past three decades. Good infrastructure has made Thailand attractive to foreign investment, helped facilitate international trade, and improved the efficiency of everyday business activities. All of these led to more jobs, and more jobs led to more income for the poor. For some not-so-poor people, good infrastructure also helps them improve productivity or fulfill their lifestyles.”
RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT –  Dr. Mohammad Tarique, Lecturer, University Dept. of Economics, B.R.Ambedkar Bihar University, Muzaffarpur.
Abstract reads: “Infrastructure development has a key role to play in both economic growth and poverty reduction. Failure to accelerate investments in rural infrastructure will make a mockery of efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals in poor developing countries while at the same time severely limit opportunities for these countries to benefit from trade liberalisation, international capital markets and other potential benefits offered by globalisation”
Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure:the case of Thailand – Deunden Nikomborirak – Asian Development Bank Institute Discussion Paper No. 19
Road Funding: Time for a Change :- Economic Growth Benefits of Transportation Infrastructure Investment – Dr. John C. Taylor,  Associate professor of marketing and logistics at Grand Valley State University and a senior policy analyst with the Mackinac Center for Public Policy in Midland, Michigan.
which contains the statement “…No, the key benefit and reason for transportation investment is from helping to make businesses and individuals more productive, across the geographic landscape. We rely on our transportation investments to increase the economy’s overall productivity – both in terms of making individual travel (business and personal) faster and more reliable, and in terms of the productivity benefits of making freight flows faster and more reliable…”
World Bank — Malawi’s infrastructure: A continental perspective: Vivien Foster; Maria Shkaratan, ISSN: 1813-9450.

As you can see, the above papers + articles present a credible argument that a good and functional infrastructure is essential for economic development.
But that’s not to say that there are no credible counter arguments against infrastructure. That’s not what I’m saying. I’m sure one can cite the prevention of deforestation or preservation of natural habitats as factors against excessive infrastructure. Also, there is the issue of encouraging tourism which could probably mean encouraging greater biodiversity, creating / preserving forests  and wildlife reserves (but even in such circumstances, you still need a world-class airport for a good first impression (the kind of impression you get when you first land at Hong Kong International); functional roads (at least 3 lanes on each side between major cities) that minimises journey times; and world-class hotels and resorts. Why should you give tourists (who in large numbers can be the source of much-needed forex revenue) less than what they are accustomed to, and expect that they will return to your country, or recommend a visit to their friends?). Never mind recommendation, how can you compete on the global stage, when your facilities are substandard? Further, why shouldn’t it be possible to build modern factories with reduced carbon footprint (see Marks & Spencer’s ‘eco-factories’ initiative here) side by side with wildlife/forest reserves?
So, considering all this, I find it hard to imagine a credible setting in which arguments against infrastructure may find pre-eminence, over arguments for infrastructure; especially for a poor country whose majority infrastructure was built  50-year ago; whose roads are littered with pot-holes, with virtually no world-class business centres; that has old airports – with poor facilities including smelly badly looked after toilets; a country that experiences intermittent blackouts almost every week; that is struggling to attract significant investment from abroad; a country where 74% of the population live below the poverty line; which is heavily reliant on agriculture and dwindling tobacco exports + has negligible industrial output; has few natural resources; has a large relatively unskilled young population and suffers widespread corruption and cronyism, even in the upper echelons of its government.

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My question to you then is: why are the leaders of such countries not investing heavily (sooner than later) into major infrastructure projects, when it is in fact a determinant factor in economic development and a serious game changer? Is it because they are in fact not cut out for the job and would be better followers instead of leaders?

The relationship between Human Safety and security (Physical security) and Economic Development

by Sang N., posted in Economy, Opinion, Public Policy, Thoughts

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When I was searching for articles that had been written and other research undertaken about the above topic, I hit two small obstacles:-
1. The first is that it seems Google prefers to highlight material on ‘food security‘ or ‘ social security’ and economic growth more than that on ‘human safety and public security’ (or physical security) and economic growth. So I had to sift through quite a lot of stuff to get the references below… which wasn’t much fun!
2. Secondly, there seems to be two major and opposing schools of thought within the research on the issue of safety and economic development. The first group believes that when seeking to improve physical security or public safety of a population, more emphasis should be placed on how the peoples’ lives can be improved, and not on economic outcomes or developmental agendas. And the second group seems to think that economic progress or development is inexplicably linked to human safety and security. That it is impossible to achieve economic development without physical security or public safety, which if you think about it, sounds like a sensible enough hypothesis. Both groups may be right.

However, after considering what has been written, I’m more inclined to side with the second group, in that while the first group has a point in stating that Human Security must be addressed for security’s sake alone, in most parts of Africa, we are quite interested in the security of our people for more than just one reason. And that may be because we have experienced first hand the devastation insufficient security can have (Kidnappings; and the fear it causes, the effect it has on tourism –Somalia, Kenya etc; underinvestment — ask any well seasoned investor what ‘political stability’ means;). In fact if some of the articles below are to go by, I suspect it is truly the case that Economic Development of any serious sort is extremely difficult, or unachievable unless an acceptable level of public safety and security is firmly in place in the country (or possibly even the region) in which such development is to occur. This also suggests that the more secure a place is, the more likely that it will be a favourable place to invest or do business in, although I’m not entirely sure of this second part. My guess is that it is probably a hyperbolic relationship that levels off slightly after acertain point (that point is not fixed and varies from one jurisdiction to the next).

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And there are other inter-relationships. For example the ease of dealing with government officials, or the confidence which people have in the court system ( i.e. if people have no confidence over the competence of the court system, few investors will leap to invest in such an environment.); the level of corruption (recently a public official I’m acquainted with suggested that one of the reasons as to why the British closed their embassy in Malawi, was because of the level of corruption in Malawi)….but if there is insufficient security from the start, the insufficient security alone can negatively affect other areas of a society.

fearA survey carried out by Gallup Inc. in 2012 suggested that Freedom from fear of bodily harm is vital not just for economic growth and development, but more fundamentally for the wellbeing of a populace. In that study, Malawi features 30th out of 134 on where less than 50% of people felt safe walking in their neighborhoods at night. Surely that couldn’t be a good thing. The government and the people ought to work together to ensure that criminality, and thuggery are curbed, and that safety is significantly increased.

Among the stories from my childhood, one in particular stands out. When I was younger, I was told by my eldest sister that before I was born, my father never used to lock his car.  He would park it on the driveway, unlocked, and would even go as far as leaving the keys within the ignition slot, It was normal back then. Over the years, even though I’m aware that there were fewer licensed drivers then than is the case now,  I’ve come to appreciate what a great deal this level of personal security was. That in barely 30 years, the security Malawi used to enjoy has deteriorated so much, such that simple acts of confidence of the people would today be considered foolhardy.

Speaking at the 41st Munich Security Conference on “Economic Development and Security” in February 2005 , the German President Horst Köhler said that “…Unless we tackle global poverty, long-term security will remain elusive. A strategy for development is by far the best form of conflict prevention!  Those words are true today as they were then. But in whose best interest is this long-term security? Should Europeans and Americans really continue to take a leading role in combatting Africa’s problems? It may seem like a small adjustment, but in the current financial climate of cuts and receding budgets, why can’t resources be diverted from salary increases or lavish motor vehicle expenses to increased spending on security?

And this idea that security is linked to economic growth is not new, but has been around for years. 18 years ago, in November 1995, Stephen Knack and Philip Keefer published a paper titled Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators that found that the quality of institutions, operationalised as the security of property rights and the level of contract enforcement, is crucial to growth and investment.(see more here)

Historically, a desire for national security has had a profound effect on developmental strides in countries across the world. For example, in Japan, it is said that the automotive industry has its origins in the demand for trucks for the Imperial Army (Odigari and Gota 1993).

It all points to the same thing, get your security in place (be it ensuring that goods sent in from abroad get to their destination safe and untempered with, or whether it’s reducing the prevalence of burglaries, or increasing the numbers of policemen on the street) and economic development has a much greater chance of happening and growth thriving!

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