The video above is one that every agriculture minister on the African continent should watch. In it, we see European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, a couple of days ago, warn that the ongoing conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz is not just an energy story – it is a food story. According to Lagarde, a third of global fertiliser shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that supply line is now under direct threat. Lagarde, love her or hate her, was unambiguous about what happens next: a prolonged disruption will spill over into shortages of key agricultural inputs, including fertilisers. And that means constrained harvests, rising food prices, and – in the worst case – food rationing.
Fertiliser shortages today risk constraining harvests and food supplies later. If disruption to fertiliser supplies and agricultural inputs continues to constrain harvests just as energy-driven cost inflation pushes food prices further out of reach, food insecurity would spread across the globe. We saw it with Ukraine and the supply of wheat. What began as a logistics crisis in the Black Sea caused by Russia’s blockade, quickly evolves into a broader, longer-lasting threat that pushes up the prices of essentials for the entire world.
- Has the invasion of Ukraine caused our food prices to rise? (Kings College London)
While the Americans may have started the war, the consequences are now affecting everyone. This is no longer a Middle Eastern, American or European problem. It is nw a global problem that unfortunately will affect the Global South most. And countries like Malawi are sitting at the sharp end of it because we import … almost everything.
The Case for Organic Fertiliser Manufacturing in Malawi
Malawi’s agricultural sector runs almost entirely on imported chemical fertilisers. When global supply chains function smoothly, that dependency is merely expensive. But when disaster strikes and a war shuts down a critical shipping chokepoint for weeks on end, it becomes dangerous. The Strait of Hormuz crisis should be the final argument needed to convince the Malawi Government,and other African governments to begin piloting initiatives for domestic, small-scale organic fertiliser manufacturing. Remember my article here, this is not something theoretical. The technology already exists.
The technology is not out of reach. Small-scale organic fertiliser manufacturing equipment – including compost turners, pelletisers, and granulators are all available and affordable at the small enterprise level. Raw materials are not in short supply: agricultural waste, livestock manure, food processing residues, and municipal organic waste are all viable inputs. What is missing is a deliberate government programme to turn these resources into a coordinated supply of locally produced fertiliser.
A pilot programme does not need to be large to be meaningful. District-level organic fertiliser cooperatives, supported by modest government grants and technical training, could begin displacing a portion of imported chemical fertiliser within two or three growing seasons. This is not a theoretical aspiration, it is applied common sense, and several countries in East Africa are already moving in this direction. Kenya for example, has already commissioned small-scale modular fertiliser production facilities in Naivasha, and the Pan-African Fertilizer Industry Association – established in Nairobi in 2025 – has set a target to triple domestic fertiliser production across the continent by 2034. Malawi and other countries which rely on imported fertiliser, should not be watching from the sidelines, but should launch their own equivalent pilots.
The argument for organic fertiliser also extends beyond supply security. Soil health in Malawi has been declining for decades under intensive chemical application. Organic alternatives rebuild soil organic matter, improve water retention, and reduce long-term input dependency (sources 8, 9, 10 below). The disruption to global fertiliser supply chains is a crisis, but it is also a potential opening. And Malawi should use it effectively.
Africa Needs EV Charging Infrastructure Now
The same logic that applies to fertiliser applies to transport. African governments cannot credibly ask their populations to transition to electric vehicles while the continent’s fuel infrastructure remains entirely oriented around petrol and diesel. The charging infrastructure has to come first. It’s common sense.
The target should be specific and non-negotiable: every filling station on the continent of Africa should have at least one EV charger installed by 2028. Yes, 2028. This is not an unreasonable ask. It does not require replacing petrol pumps or retiring existing infrastructure. It requires one additional installation per forecourt, prioritising solar-powered charging units to reduce grid dependency.
The returns are not just environmental. Solar EV charging reduces fuel import costs, creates local technical employment, and insulates economies from the kind of oil price shock currently hammering households across the developing world as a direct result of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. The conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil and gas prices surging precisely because global transport is still almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels. Africa should not be building the next generation of its transport infrastructure on the same fragile foundation that can so easily be interrupted.
Whether you support the Iranian war or not, that is not the issue here. The issue is it can’t possibly be fair that a far away war, which has nothing to do with us, should cripple our economies.
And so Governments across Africa need to act now. They should compel their citizens to adopt electric vehicles, but the first step is to do the groundwork. Solar chargers at every filling station by 2028 is the baseline. The private sector will not do this alone – policy mandates and infrastructure financing are required. Now, you can make those chargers to have auxiliary power fed in from the grid, but the point is they should operate whether there is electricity being supplied in the national grid or not.
The Bigger Picture
Christine Lagarde’s warning was addressed to European policymakers. Actually, she was addressing a group of bankers when she said these things. But the underlying message travels further. The global supply chains that deliver fertilisers, fuels, and food to the developing world are fragile, concentrated, and vulnerable to geopolitical disruption. This has been accepted as normal, but it shouldn’t be so. Countries that have built their food security and transport systems on those chains are exposed in ways that are now plainly visible. And it doesn’t make sense to just remain in the same vulnerable position, when you’ve had numerous disruptions that challenge your position.
Malawi and its neighbours do not need to wait for the next crisis to begin acting. The current one is a sufficiently critical notice.
This article accompanies our latest episode on Building Malawi Podcast. Listen here.
Sources
- Pravda EU – ECB chief Christine Lagarde warns of possible food rationing due to fertilizer disruptions: https://eu.news-pravda.com/eu/2026/04/21/188769.html
- YouTube – “Third Of Fertilizers At Risk”: ECB chief Lagarde Warns Hormuz Crisis May Trigger Food Rationing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNprEjKV53U
- Business Today – “Third Of Fertilizers At Risk”: ECB chief Lagarde Warns Hormuz Crisis May Trigger Food Rationing: https://www.businesstoday.in/bt-tv/short-video/third-of-fertilizers-at-risk-ecb-chief-lagarde-warns-hormuz-crisis-may-trigger-food-rationing-526686-2026-04-21
- BERNAMA – ECB Chief Lagarde Warns Europe Faces Prolonged Fallout From Hormuz Shock: https://www.bernama.com/en/world/news.php?id=2547280
- Euronews – Iran war energy shock puts ECB on alert: https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/03/25/iran-war-energy-shock-puts-ecb-on-alert-lagarde-says-this-is-no-repeat-of-2022
- Food Navigator – Iran war disrupts food supply chains as Strait of Hormuz crisis deepens: https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/04/14/iran-war-disrupts-food-supply-chains-as-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-deepens/
- Euronews – Iran war has ‘material impact’ on inflation, ECB’s Lagarde warns: Iran war has ‘material impact’ on inflation, ECB’s Lagarde warns | Euronews
- Frontiers in Microbiology (2025) — Enhancing soil health through balanced fertilization: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2025.1536524/full
- Journal of Soil Science and Plant Nutrition (2025) — Long-term organic and inorganic fertilizers and soil physical characteristics: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42729-025-02457-1
- Discover Agriculture / Springer Nature (2025) — Global adoption of organo-mineral fertilisers: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s44279-025-00349-7
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